Posts from — May 2009

This site is always trying to provide useful information, raising awareness, and bringing useful resources to the readers and visitors. This time, Dr. Charles M. Savage, from Munich, Germany, allowed me to publish an article he has created recently. To learn more about Charles and the amazing things he does, take a look at http://www.kee-inc.com

“Failing to Notice” the “Peak Brothers?”

*In a Foreword by Stephen Covey for Alex Pattakos, Prisoners of Our Thoughts, Viktor Frankl’s Principals at Work. San Francisco: Berrett-Koehler, 2004.

No one’s failed to notice the results on the election.  Undoubtedly, there is new energy and excitement that India will get moving again, and rightly so.  And certainly the ICMCI India community will be busy supporting many companies as they seek to grow domestically and internationally.�
Amidst this excitement, might there be something we’ve “failed to notice?” 

Perhaps we’ve not really notice the “Peak Brothers:” Peak Oil, Peak Phosphates, Peak Lithium and Peak Water?  Back in 1956 M. King Hubbert, a geologist for Shell, computed the availability of petroleum resources in the US and came to the conclusion that have of these would be used up by the early 1970s.  He was on target, as the US resources peaked in 1972.  Next he applied his model to the world and in 1976 showed this graphic:

Look carefully at this graphic.  King says if we go back 5 thousand years and ahead 5 thousand years, the “Washington monument like spike shows the episode of our discovery and use of petroleum projects.”  He added, “This is the most disturbing thing in human history!”   

Do we know this or have we “failed to notice?” 

In a similar way, if we put “Peak Phosphates” into Google, we’ll find that this resource is about to peak just at a time when we need more fertilizers to feed another billion people coming in the next 14 years.�
Likewise, try “Peak Lithium” and we’ll find that the key ingredient for electric cars is more limited than we might have though.  And yes, there’s still a lot of water, but only about 1% is readily accessible, so “Peak Water” is a growingly troublesome challenge.  Certainly, as the glaciers on the Himalayas melt, one of India’s key rivers will be profoundly impacted.

Might the ICMCI Delhi “notice” the pending impact of these “Four Peak Brothers” and begin to help your clients prepare for the challenging times ahead?  After all, with wise judgment, we might be able to live on this planet for the next 800 million years.   But certainly not if we don’t “notice” these four challenges!
Dr. Charles M. Savage, Munich, 2009

If you like to review some more infomration on the topic of the “Peak Brothers”, you might want to start by spending 10 more minutes with this video:

Axel Meierhoefer